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We can approximate from history, then adjust if needed:
- A final victory margin of 4 should happen about 4-5% of the time.
A quick reminder that the real-world impact on your bets is less than those numbers suggest.
Sometimes it's an underdog winning by the trey, or a big favorite.
You'll often hear Vinny Magliulo and the other oddsmaking experts in the VSiN fold talk about how "the public bets teams, the pros bet numbers.
- 3-point favorite wins by exactly 3 9% of the time.
They know the skill sets, and who's having trouble protecting the quarterback, and which skill-position players are out with an injury, and how weather might impact the particular scoring approaches.
That might sound foreign to you because you're so focused on thinking about which team is going to crush the other one.
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